Natural Gas Royalty Estimate: How to Calculate [+ Pitfalls]

By Robert Phillips, CPA

Mineral rights can be an exceptional investment opportunity. But if you are getting started, how do you obtain a natural gas royalty estimate?

Natural gas is a unique mineral right that is subject to market volatility. It has a different profile compared to other mineral rights.

In this guide I will discuss how you can obtain an estimated natural gas royalty by doing just a little research. Let’s dive in.

Background on Natural Gas Royalties

Natural gas royalties are payments made to mineral rights owners based on the production of gas from their land. When a company extracts natural gas from a property, the mineral rights owner is entitled to a percentage of the revenue.

This percentage, known as the royalty rate, is typically negotiated in the lease agreement. Royalties are calculated based on the amount of gas produced and the market price at the time of sale. Understanding how to estimate natural gas royalties can help mineral owners plan their finances and verify payments.

Natural gas royalties are a crucial source of income for many mineral rights owners. The payment structure is designed to fairly compensate them for the extraction of their resources. Royalties are usually paid monthly, based on the amount of natural gas sold by the producer.

The calculation involves several factors, including the owner’s Net Revenue Interest (NRI), the total production, and the current market price of natural gas.

Research Comparable Properties in the Area

To estimate natural gas royalties, it’s important to research comparable properties in your area. Start by identifying wells that are near your property and are producing natural gas.

You can gather this data through state oil and gas regulatory agencies, which often have public databases. These databases provide production reports for wells, giving you a clear idea of how much gas similar wells are generating.

natural gas royalty estimate

By researching these nearby wells, you’ll gain valuable insights into production volumes and trends. This information helps establish a baseline for what you might expect from your own property. Higher-producing wells will naturally lead to higher royalty payments.

Pay attention to the well’s production history over time, as production rates often decline after the initial few months or years. Understanding local production trends is crucial for creating a realistic natural gas royalty estimate.

Determine NRI (Net Revenue Interest)

Calculating your Net Revenue Interest (NRI) is a key step in estimating natural gas royalties. The NRI represents your share of the income generated from the sale of natural gas. It is determined by multiplying your ownership interest by the royalty rate specified in the lease agreement.

For example, if you own 50% of the mineral rights on a property and have a royalty rate of 15%, your NRI would be 0.075 (50% multiplied by 15%). This means you would receive 7.5% of the revenue generated from the natural gas production. Understanding your NRI helps ensure that you accurately calculate your expected royalty payments.

If you own 100% of the mineral rights, you’ll receive the full royalty percentage stated in the lease. However, if your ownership is split among multiple parties, you’ll only receive a proportion of the royalties based on your percentage of ownership. Always review your lease agreement and title documents carefully to confirm your exact ownership percentage and royalty rate.

Calculate the Royalty Estimate

To calculate a natural gas royalty estimate, you need to know your NRI, the total production volume, and the current market price of natural gas. Start by estimating the monthly production of gas from your property. You can use data from comparable wells in your area to approximate this figure.

Next, determine the current market price of natural gas. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand and can vary by region. Once you have the production volume and the price per unit of gas, multiply these figures to find the total revenue generated by the well.

For example, if your well produces 10,000 cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas in a month, and the market price is $3.00 per Mcf, the total revenue would be $30,000. To calculate your royalty, multiply the total revenue by your NRI. Using the previous example with an NRI of 0.075, you would receive $2,250 as your monthly royalty payment.

Keep in mind that there may be deductions for post-production costs, such as transportation, processing, or marketing. These deductions can reduce the final royalty payment, so be sure to factor them into your estimate.

Example: Estimating Your Royalty Check

Let’s consider NRI (Net Revenue Interest) in dollars and cents. NRI is the portion of the total revenue from gas production that a mineral rights owner is entitled to after deducting the production costs.

Let’s assume your well is in the Bakken in N. Dakota. In our example, you can review nearby horizontal Bakken wells drilled at 1,280-acre spacing. They average approximately 10,000 bbls of oil over the first three months of production. So, assuming our new well averages this, and the price of Bakken crude is $60/bbl, here’s what we might expect in the royalty check for this one well for these months:

Gross Owner Interest (before tax) = Gross Volume x Gross Price x NRI or:
10,000 bbls x $60/bbl x 0.001875 = $1,125

This is just for the natural gas produced (you can calculate oil revenue similarly). Estimating how much you will receive based on future production forecasts can seem daunting, but it’s more of an engineering exercise than a financial one. Now you see that you don’t need to worry about advanced math to estimate your royalty payment.

Keep in mind that this is a simplified example. Your lease might allow the operator to deduct specific expenses such as transportation, processing, and other costs. But don’t worry; you don’t need to be a financial expert to grasp this. We’re here to help you through the process, offering the support you need to navigate it.

Closing Summary

Calculating a natural gas royalty estimate requires careful research and attention to detail. Start by gathering data on comparable wells in your area to understand local production trends. Then, determine your NRI based on your ownership interest and the royalty rate in your lease. Finally, calculate the estimated royalty payment by multiplying the total production revenue by your NRI, while accounting for potential deductions.

By understanding the factors that influence natural gas royalty payments, mineral owners can better anticipate their income and verify the accuracy of payments. Keeping track of market trends, well productivity, and your lease terms is essential for maximizing the benefits of your mineral rights. Accurate royalty estimates ensure that you are well-prepared to optimize your natural gas investment.